David Silva is playing again at 40, in the Hong Kong Premier League

The move

David Silva has returned from retirement at 40 to sign for Sha Tin of the Hong Kong Premier League, years after leaving Manchester City and closing his career in Spain.

Comebacks are not rare in football. What stands out here is the destination: not one of Europe's known leagues, but a distant one and a comparatively small club.

Smaller leagues behave differently

A famous name lifts a league's visibility, and for anyone betting it carries a warning with it. Thin markets react late: team news spreads slowly, an injury reaches the price hours after it happened, and limits are low.

A player's name also moves a price more than it moves the result. With no clarity on how many minutes a 40-year-old will play, the shift in odds is usually larger than the shift in probability.

The practical note

This is a useful reminder when a bonus is in play. Clearing a wagering requirement in a league you do not follow means betting at an information disadvantage, however attractive the price looks.

The name or the team

Names mislead when you are measuring a team. Until it is clear how many games a signing will play, in what position, and whether the shape changes around him, any claim about the effect on results is a hope rather than an estimate.

For a 40-year-old the uncertainty is wider still: rotation, short appearances and injury risk are all ordinary. A famous name in a lightly covered league still moves the price more than it moves the probability, precisely because there is so little information around it.

What clearing a requirement in an unfamiliar league actually costs is worked through in the wagering guide.