Prices above fair value: 22 away wins, 12 home wins, 7 draws

What was measured

The board read 97 fixtures across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, the Champions League and the Super Lig, with prices from European books. For each outcome the fair price is the average of the other books' prices after each one's own margin is removed - the book offering the best price is left out of that average, so no single outlier can vote for its own edge.

A price counts as a gap only when at least four books are quoting the match and the gap is between 3% and 15%. Above 15% it is almost always a line that has not been moved yet, and it gets voided rather than paid.

The split

Away wins: 22 gaps, 6.4% on average, the widest 14.5%. Home wins: 12 gaps, 5.5% on average. Draws: 7 gaps, 5.9% on average.

Every fixture offers all three outcomes, so the three had exactly the same number of chances to appear. The away side appeared almost twice as often as the home side and three times as often as the draw.

The usual explanation

Money leans towards favourites and towards home sides, and a book that takes more on one side shortens it. What is left over sits on the side nobody is backing, which on an average weekend is the away team.

That is the standard account and it fits this reading. It is not proved by it: one morning of prices cannot separate a real bias from a weekend where the fixtures happened to fall that way.

What would make it a pattern

The same reading, taken every morning, and the result of every price written down at the price it was shown. That is what the record on this site is for: flat stakes, one unit per pick, settled from the final score.

Until there are enough settled prices to mean something, the honest description of the number above is what it is - one morning's reading, not advice.